Breaking the Outcome Bias: Evaluating Decisions Based on the Process over Outcomes

Outcome bias

Belief that the outcomes of a behaviour were intended by the person who chose the behaviour.

Outcome bias refers to the tendency of people to judge the quality of a decision based on its outcome. In other words, people often judge whether a decision was good or bad based on the outcome that resulted from it, rather than looking at the quality of the decision-making process itself.

This type of bias can be particularly problematic in situations where outcomes are influenced by factors beyond a person’s control. For example, in a sporting event, a coach may make what seems like a good decision to put a certain player in the game, but if that player ends up making a critical mistake that costs the team the game, the coach’s decision may be judged as a poor one.

Outcome bias can also affect decisions made in areas such as finance and investing. For example, an investor may evaluate a past investment decision based on the returns they earned, rather than considering the quality of the decision-making process they used to arrive at that investment choice.

It is important to be aware of the potential for outcome bias and to try to evaluate decisions based on the available information and the thought process used in making the decision, rather than being swayed too heavily by outcomes. By doing so, we can enhance our ability to make rational and effective decisions.

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