Margin of Error
a measure of the accuracy of a public opinion poll, informally calculated by multiplying the standard deviation by two.
Margin of Error is a statistical concept that refers to the degree of accuracy with which a sample represents the entire population from which it was drawn. It is the extent to which the results of a survey or poll may be expected to differ from those of the population as a whole.
The Margin of Error is typically represented as a plus or minus (+/-) percentage figure and is associated with a confidence level, which is the probability or likelihood that the true population parameter falls within the range of values inferred from the sample data. For example, a Margin of Error of +/- 4% with a 95% confidence level means that if the same survey were repeated 100 times under the same conditions, 95 out of 100 samples would yield a result within 4% of the true population parameter.
In general, larger sample sizes result in smaller margins of error, while smaller sample sizes result in larger margins of error. Factors that can impact the Margin of Error include the size and diversity of the population, the sampling methodology, the quality of the survey instrument, and the response rate.
It is important to consider the Margin of Error when interpreting survey or poll results, as it indicates the degree of uncertainty associated with the results. A larger Margin of Error may suggest that the sample is not representative of the population and that the results should be interpreted with caution.
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