personal probability
a number between 0 and 1expresses an individual’s judgment of how likely a PARTICULAR outcome is
Personal probability is the degree of belief or confidence that an individual has in the occurrence of a particular event or outcome. It is a subjective measure of the likelihood of an event happening based on an individual’s own experiences, opinions, and knowledge.
Personal probability differs from objective probability, which is based on mathematical or statistical analysis of data and events occurring in a given population or environment. Personal probability takes into account individual factors that may influence the likelihood of an event occurring, such as one’s emotional state, biases, and personal experience.
To calculate personal probability, an individual can consider factors such as their past experiences, the information available about the event, the likelihood of the event based on statistical or mathematical analysis, and their personal beliefs and biases. Personal probability can also change based on new information or experiences that occur over time.
In summary, personal probability is a subjective measure of the likelihood of an event or outcome occurring, based on an individual’s personal experiences, beliefs, and biases.
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